Journalists often cite statistics reported by the Polaris Project, a national nonprofit organization working to combat modern-day human trafficking, to demonstrate the prevalence of the types of sex or labor trafficking. And the numbers they report are based on the number of calls they get on their National Human Trafficking Resource Center Hotline (National Hotline). For example, the National Hotline received 26,727 calls last year that reported human trafficking in the United States. Of those calls, the Polaris project reported that 7,621 cases were referred to law enforcement. The National Hotline for reporting cases received more calls from California than any other state in the country in 2016. Even more, the FBI listed California as one of the largest hubs of human trafficking in the United States.
Map & Graph: Calls
Another trusted source for statistics on victims of human trafficking is by The National Center for Victims of Crime, a nonprofit organization that advocates for victims' rights that draws its information largely from two national, annual reports — the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report (UCR) and the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) — which measure the scope, magnitude and impact of human trafficking in the United States.
"Because sex trafficking is considered horrific, politicians appear willing to cite the flimsiest and most poorly researched statistics — and the media is content to treat the claims as solid facts," Glenn Kessler concluded in his article for The Washington Post in June.
For example, Rep. Joyce Beatty (D–Ohio) and Rep. Ann Wagner (R–Mo.) have both stated in 2016 that "some 300,000 children are at risk each year for commercial sexual exploitation" in the United States, citing the Department of Justice (DOJ). The New York Times has also referenced this number, attributing the figure to the DOJ. Meanwhile, Fox News raised the number to 400,000 and attributed it to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).
However, the numbers were based on data from a non-peer-reviewed paper published in 2001 that researchers Richard Estes and Neil Weiner of the University of Pennsylvania no longer endorses. First, the numbers were based on data collected from the 1990s, so that was one problem. Moreover, Estes and his colleagues came up with their number by speculating conditions that put juveniles at risk of potential exploitation by sex traffickers, such as whether the person lived in public housing, had been a runaway or had foreign parents. Once they determined those who were at risk of becoming exploited, they then would count up the number of minors. To make a suspicious measure even worse, anyone who fell into more than one category was counted multiple times.
However, the researchers were careful to include cautionary stipulations and caveats, explaining that there are problems with the estimated number. But the warnings were ignored, as the number was (and still is) repeatedly referenced in public discourse.
In 2008, researchers from the Crimes against Children Research Center at the University of New Hampshire wrote a fact sheet, explaining the problems with the Estes/Weiner estimate, as well as other claims about the extent of the juvenile prostitution. The authors of the report pleaded in all caps: “PLEASE DO NOT CITE THESE NUMBERS [...] The reality is that we do not currently know how many juveniles are involved in prostitution. Scientifically credible estimates do not exist.” In addition, the National Academy of Sciences and the Justice Department concluded in a published report that “[n]o reliable national estimate exists of the incidence or prevalence of commercial sexual exploitation and sex trafficking of minors in the United States.”
According to International Labour Organization estimates (ILO), only 21.5 percent of all human trafficking cases are really sex trafficking cases. However, the media and many anti-trafficking organizations often suggest sex trafficking is the most widespread kind of exploitation. As a result, some people argue that similarly egregious and much more common labor trafficking cases tend to receive little to no public attention and, hence, fewer resources. Although it might be the case that sex trafficking is more prevalent than any other type of human trafficking, there are just no reliable numbers out there.