Sahil Nandwani knew he always wanted to get involved in the professional side of politics.

He describes himself as a voter with strong opinions. In 2018, he created his own political student group called Bridge USA, a multi-partisan effort to help student leaders influence democratic change.

But Nandwani still felt that Republicans at USC were not being properly represented. He looked into activist groups on campus and found the USC College Republicans. This chapter was practically nonexistent, despite being one the biggest in the country in the past.

This led Nandwani to take it upon himself to try and rebuild the group at USC.

“I started learning about the state of college Republicans regionally, statewide, nationally, and the Republican party in general,” Nandwani said. “I decided to go all in on that.”

His efforts worked and he was able to make the group on campus active and functioning again, but Nandwani has his work cut out for him when it comes to the party as a whole. The Republican Party in California has been on the decline for the last decade. In 2018, the California Republican Party suffered a disastrous loss in the midterm elections. They lost seven of their congressional seats, leaving only six Republican representatives to represent the party in California’s 53 total seats.

Uncharted Territory

More than 30 years ago, things were completely different. The GOP dominated California’s politics. Republican candidates controlled the state’s presidential elections, the state was governed by Republican governors, and Democratic registration had dropped to below 50%, leaving the Democrats to fear that they would become the state’s minority party.

The GOP was a different party back then. It was continuously moving upward and there seemed to be a light at the end of the tunnel.

But since 2004, the party’s momentum from the late ‘80s and early ‘90s almost completely disappeared and continued to decline each year. In 2004, almost 36% of registered voters in California had been Republican. The party was only 8 points behind the Democrats. Now in 2020, Republicans come in third with registered voters.

Ahead of California’s primary on Super Tuesday, 24% of voters were registered as Republicans. No Party Preference voters were registered at 25% and the Democratic party had a dominating 45% of registered voters.

Undoubtedly this has resulted in Republican voters in California becoming disconnected from their state’s politics.

Nandwani believes his party is working on a brand new campaign strategy to win back their seats in the state. For the first time ever, candidates aren’t running campaigns focused on conservative values.

“So what you're seeing in the Republican party now is a shift away from those idea conversations and more towards efficiency conversations,” he explained. “Because if there's one thing that every Californian can agree on, it's that our government is not doing anywhere near as good as it should.”

Ryan Gardiner has had years of experience working for the California Republican party. He currently works for California State Senator John Moorlach, and was part of the campaign that elected Jessica Patterson as chairwoman. Like Nandwani, Gardiner is also a delegate for the California GOP Party.

He feels like the party is in an unfortunate position but is optimistic about the future because of the current plan of action to win back their seats.

“California Republicans really have an opportunity to hit on those issues that people care about, really resonate with folks and bring about some positive change for the state,” Gardiner said.

He continued on and explained that leaders in Sacramento haven’t come up with a cohesive plan to address the main issues Californians are forced to deal with such as poverty, infrastructure, and a poor school system. Gardiner believes that if the Republican party focuses on providing solutions and alternatives to these problems, it will be easier to campaign.

John Thomas believes this is the perfect opportunity for Republicans to call out Democrats on their broken promises during their campaign in 2018.

Thomas is a Republican strategist who has been running Republican campaigns in California for the last decade. He’s seen the party decline upfront for the last ten years and doesn’t see the GOP becoming a party majority in California anytime soon.

However he thinks that the GOP will have a better chance in November of 2020, because many of the Democrats who ran and won during the 2018 midterms marketed themselves as moderates.

“I think the left has shifted a little bit further to the left and they marketed themselves in the midterms to be moderates,” Thomas said. “I anticipate a slow crawl back in some of these seats to recapture a few.”

The Trump Effect

Another issue facing the California Republican Party is President Donald Trump’s rhetoric.

Caleb Beaver is a staffer for the California Secretary of State and has seen firsthand the major shift in approval for Republicans once Trump was elected to office.

“You can't play national Republican politics in coastal metro areas of California and expect to win even if there are heritage voters,” he said.

Bob Shrum, director of the USC Center for the Political Future, believes that California is operating with three active political parties; the Democrats, Republicans and the No Party Preference.

“The Republican party is now the third party in California,” he said. “it's behind the Democrats and behind No Party Preference.”

He believes that’s had an impact on the remaining registered Republicans in the state.

“As it has shrunk, it has gotten more radical and extreme,” Shrum said in reference to the GOP in California.

Beaver believes this shift in the party hurt the Republicans the most during the 2018 midterms.

“The shift essentially creates a death spiral because when a candidate is required to appeal to a more radical base it turns off potential voters in the middle,” Beaver said.

Ann Crigler, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California, thinks the best thing candidates can do is separate their policies from the president’s.

“I think Trump is pretty polarizing right now, so I think steering away from him is advisable in certain counties,” Crigler said.

Orange County is one of these counties. Over time, the once Republican dominated area has become diverse racially and more college educated. College educated and diverse voters are generally becoming more fond of Democrats.

On a national level, the Republican party had an increase in their non-college educated white male voters, but a large decrease in college educated white female voters.

This also affected Orange County, which saw a real ideological change within their white college educated female voters, not to mention a huge increase in the county’s diversity.

Gardiner says there’s been a real debate with the party if it is truly possible for the candidates to distance themselves from the president. He believes that if candidates do separate themselves, the Republican voters they have left will stay home and not vote. Gardiner thinks this ends up hurting the GOP more because the party needs their vote more in the local state races, rather than the national race they are protesting.

“On the flip side, if you go too far and full-heartedly embraced president Trump, then you get a lot of backlash from the No Party Preference,” Gardiner said.

Nandwani believes that ever since Trump was elected there’s been important and painful conversations about who the California Republican Party really is.

“Being a California Republican right now is seeing this entire party trying to soul search for where it needs to go in the future and having a lot of great examples of ways that it can go,” he said.

Nandwani believes there’s a real disconnect between what Republican leadership wants and what voters want, which has caused them to fall behind in key races.

Diversity is Key

Throughout the past 25 years, California’s population increased by nearly 10 million. During this time, there has been a relative decrease in California’s white population.

The state saw a large increase in migration, primarily from Latin America, which benefited the Democratic party.

As the state’s demographics changed, it also went through a cultural change in politics as well. Crime, which was one of the Republican’s leading issues, declined in importance. Abortion, gay, and environmental rights increased in importance, especially in suburban communities. This caused the party to learn different ways to positively brand themselves to California’s newly diverse population.

“Many of the Republicans have been trying to reach out to different diverse communities to try to show their economic benefits,” Crigler said

The party also took measures to address their diversity issues last year by electing a new, diverse group of leaders. This included Jessica Patterson, the state party’s first ever woman, Latina, and millennial chairman. Peter Kuo, an immigrant from Taiwan, and Gregory Gandrud, openly gay, were also elected as party leaders.

Patterson’s victory came against two older pro-Trump white guys, further proving that the party is ready to take a step away from the typical stereotype of the Republican Party.

To win again, Thomas believes the party needs more than diverse leadership, they need more diverse candidates on the ballot.

“The candidate that most looks and feels like the community wins,” Thomas said. “Until we start running candidates that look like the diversity of the state we're not going to recapture the majority.”

It’s important to the party to drift away from the stereotype that only old rich white guys are Republican in order to win again. The Republican party in California is focused on more than just race and gender when it comes to diverse voters.

“It's also interesting to note that while the Democratic caucus has gotten more ethnically diverse, the Republican caucus has gotten younger,” Nandwani said.

One of the party’s main plans is to reach out to new voters, and that’s something the party has been very active in doing.

“There have been very active ways of recruiting young people into the Republican party and into the Republican hierarchy,” said Crigler. “Both through universities and college organizations and through the larger party emphases.”

This is how Nandwani and Gardiner got involved in the state’s party. Both worked for Republican groups on their campuses.

Nandwani later moved on to intern for the LA County Republican party and worked hands-on with chairwoman Patterson as they tried to turn the LA County Republican office into a more efficient one.

Gardiner worked on Patterson’s campaign, which later helped him get the job assisting State Senator John Moorlach’s campaign in Orange County.

Patterson made both Nandwani and Gardiner delegates for the Republican Party in California because of their hard work.

To see the interactive version of this map, please click here.

The Future Is Bright

Ultimately, the party has high hopes for the future. They are aware of the dismal situation and continuously working to gain traction again.

Thomas is hopeful that in the November election, the party will have better candidates on the ballots that will appeal to the undecided voters.

As for Gardiner and Nandwani, both remain committed to the Republican party for the long haul, no matter how steep the uphill battle may seem.

Gardiner believes that November will determine more about the future of the party than the results of the 2018 midterms.

“I am optimistic and I think there's a lot of positives out there as a California Republican,” he said. “The ultimate test will be the first weekend of November, when we see whether or not the trend in 2018 continues or was just a one-off.”

Nandwani is confident that his party’s hard work will pay off soon. From creating groups on his college campus to working at the county level to becoming a delegate for the party, his political aspirations have only just begun.