Raise a toast to the world's fastest-growing wine market: The Chinese are imbibing more wine than ever, opening up opportunities for world-renowned wine regions to capitalize on this burgeoning market.
"The future of wine means China," said Mike Veseth, a wine economist at the University of Puget Sound in Washington. "In 20 years, China will be the largest wine consumer, and it may happen much before that."
With a younger generation developing a palate for Western wine, Chinese consumers have purchased a vast and growing amount of foreign wines over the past decade. According to Wine by Numbers, a web magazine covering the international wine trade, China's imports for still wines amounted to nearly $2.6 billion in 2017 -- second only to the United States. From 2008 to 2017, still wine imports jumped 28% in dollar value, making China the fastest-growing wine import market in the world.
"There are a lot of markets and opportunities out there," said Jaime Glenn, chief operating officer of CaliPaso Winery and Villa in Paso Robles, California. "It is very naive of companies not to explore those options."
The Chinese market offers great potential. But when reputation, investment efforts and now a bitter trade war between the U.S. and China come into play, tapping into the most up-and-coming wine country remains a complicated economic equation for American wineries.
"The U.S. isn't selling much wine in China because they are not trying very hard," Veseth said.
Chinese consumers are not yet drinking much American wine. Of all bottled wines imported by China in 2018, American labels accounted for less than 3% of the entire market by dollar value, statistics from Wine by Numbers show. That penetration rate trailed far behind those of French and Australian wines, which made up 37% and 27% of the total for imported bottled wines, respectively, over the same period.
Americans' nearly five-century-long thirst for wine has offered limited incentives for local wineries to explore international markets. In 2017, more than 85% of U.S. wines were consumed domestically, according to the Wine Institute, a San Francisco-based advocacy group for California vintners.
American wine in China: A tough challenge.
However, Veseth is seeing a change among American wine producers as the domestic market stagnates.
"Now this is turning around. Many people are now beginning to make those important investments to get their products into the Chinese market," he said. "But it might take a few years and a lot of commitment."
There is no shortcut to investing in an export market for wine, Veseth said. Making frequent trips and establishing strong personal relationships with local distributors are the must-have ingredients for wineries to firmly set foot in a country. He said the Australians, in particular, are bearing fruit in the Chinese market after years of long-term commitments.
China, with its population of 1.4 billion, represents the greatest prospect for American vintners to expand their businesses, Veseth and others believe. Many years after the French and Australian winemakers made their moves, the Americans are finally stepping up efforts to grow their presence in China.
But here come the tariffs.
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Take a 360-degree tour of the vineyard at CaliPaso Winery and Villa in Paso Robles, California.
Known as California's fastest-growing wine region, Paso Robles -- located halfway between Los Angeles and San Francisco -- is home to more than 200 wineries and 40,000 acres of vineyards.
On a bumpy ride through idyllic grasslands and endless acres of vineyards, CaliPaso Winery and Villa sits at a dead-end road off the intersection of Highways 101 and 46. Six years after establishing its first business ties with China, the winery has been eyeing the country for the untapped opportunities.
But President Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs has upended efforts dedicated to quenching Chinese drinkers' growing taste for imported wines. In retaliation for American trade policies aimed at China, Beijing imposed tariffs on U.S. wines amounting to almost 80%, effective last September.
Of all the cabernets, zinfandels, pinot noirs, chardonnays and other varietals that CaliPaso produces, Glenn says that none will be going to China this year.
With respect to the overall impact, the tariffs are far less detrimental than many would think. As wines exported to China made up only 5% of the company's entire production, Glenn is confident that the absence, for now, of Chinese sales will not put the business in peril.
"It shouldn't affect us at all because we will focus business here," Glenn said. "But unfortunately it is 10 steps backward in a lot of situations."
Jaime Glenn -- chief operating officer of CaliPaso Winery and Villa in Paso Robles, California -- explains the business' move in response to the Chinese tariffs on American wines.
Though presumably temporary, the tariff issue nonetheless is affecting the trajectory of moving U.S. wine out of its nascent stage in China to take on the French, Australians and Chileans. CaliPaso is not alone in calling a timeout on its business expansion in China.
Situated in downtown Los Angeles for more than a century, San Antonio Winery is a vestige of the city's winemaking history. Today, the winery has vineyards across California: 500 acres in Paso Robles, 500 in Monterey and 20 in Napa Valley.
Anthony Riboli, 45, is the family's fourth-generation winemaker. Walking around the newly built winery in Paso Robles, Riboli -- who already has China in his sights -- described his ambitions in delivering more of his family business' 25 varieties to that market. At present, the Chinese market accounts for just a few percentage points of San Antonio's total sales.
"It has been more than 15 years," he said, of the company's efforts to sell to China, "and we are still working hard."
Riboli believes that China offers a lot of potential for foreign wine markets, as Chinese wine production is still a cottage industry. In general, he said, drinkers tend to consume wines produced in their own countries: Italians drinking Italian wine, Chileans drinking Chilean wines. This creates additional hurdles for American wineries to explore potentially lucrative export opportunities.
While American vintners face the prospect of that 80% tariff, wineries from Australia, Chile and New Zealand are able to sell affordable wines in China based on free-trade agreements.
"If you are an importer in China, why buy our wine just because it is Californian wine? You can buy Australian wine or again wine from France, maybe a better deal," Riboli said.
Despite not having a government working hand in hand with U.S. wineries, Riboli said, he is not giving up. But he expressed reservations about investing too much more in the Chinese market for now.
"I don't know if it is worth pushing harder," he said. "How much energy, how much time and money can we put into the Chinese export market if our government isn't making it easy?"
As the producer of the first foreign wines imported into China, France is perceived by Chinese as the most revered wine region. It remained the top supplier in China in 2018, followed by Australia, Chile and Spain, according to data from Wine by Numbers.
"French is more traditional. It is the No. 1 wine in the world," said Mike Hu, the sourcing manager at Fukang Chateau Club in southern China. His company, which supplies wine to hotels and restaurants and operates a wine club for consumers, carries only French fine wines. American wine is never a consideration for the business, he said.
While the superiority of the French is deeply entrenched in China's wine-drinking culture, Hu said, mid-priced wines from Australia and bulk wines from Chile are also taking hold in the market, thanks to increasing availability in restaurants and grocery stores. For U.S. wine, the situation is the opposite.
"Reputation and price have made it unpopular. It is not attractive," Hu said.
Getting Chinese drinkers a glass of American wine is challenging. Apart from the fierce competition among Western wines, the rise of China's winemaking industry may pose an additional threat to American producers who wish to make further inroads into the market.
China ranked eighth in wine production by volume in 2018. Despite a population gravitating toward foreign varietals, Chinese wines account for nearly 80% of the market by volume in 2016, according to Beverage Trade Network.
Modern wine production in China began in the 1970s. During the early days, the palate of Chinese wines was immature in complexity and quality. But Chinese vintners have gradually gained international recognition as the growing sophistication in China's wine-drinking culture has taken place in tandem with improved quality.
Liz Thach is one of the 383 masters of wine across 30 countries. Granted by the Institute of Masters of Wine based in the United Kingdom, the title is recognized as the most prestigious in the realm of wine. Thach -- who teaches, judges and is an avid consumer of wine -- said she has witnessed a huge evolution in wine offerings in China since her first visit in 2006.
"The quality of wines in China has improved a lot," she said. "Now in certain regions they have excellent world-class wines, especially in Ningxia."
Despite their business being heavily skewed toward local drinkers, some Chinese winemakers are showing an appetite for global expansion. Some brands are making bold attempts to bring the Chinese labels abroad. And Yantai Changyu Group Company Limited -- the country's oldest and biggest wine producer -- is one of the vanguards.
Pierre Ly, an associate professor at the University Puget Sound who studies the Chinese wine market, said Changyu is gaining ground in the United Kingdom after running a couple of marketing campaigns there on social media and television.
"There is a lot of enthusiasm in increasing recognition in China and abroad. It's being shown that they can make very good wines," Ly said.
But Thach believes that Chinese winemaking is still a fledgling business. The country lacks national pride in local wines, let alone worldwide recognition, she said. Until it is established well enough to garner accolades and global respect, and despite recent gains, Thach said, it is too far-fetched to name China a leading wine-producing region.
It would be a mistake to assume that 1.4 billion people share the same palate. But understanding the broader picture will open the door for American winemakers who are on a quest for the untapped opportunities in China.
Seeing China as a wine neophyte, Hu believes that the majority of his countrymen are still developing a trained palate to unravel the complexities of Old World wines -- especially those made in Europe that exhibit higher acidity and less fruitiness. The popularity of French wine is rooted in its unbeatable reputation, not people's love for the astringency to coat their tongues, he said.
New World wines -- namely those that taste riper with less acidity -- are growing on the Chinese. With a shorter production time, Hu said, these wines carry a simpler flavor that better suits Chinese drinkers, who are going through a phase of fully comprehending wine.
Representing one of the New World wine regions, it is clear to many American vintners that hopping onto this booming market could pay dividends, but only if premised on a trade resolution with Beijing.
"A lot of it depends on whether the U.S. and China can reach a trade agreement. There are extra barriers that U.S. winemakers won't overcome until we get a better trade relationship with China," Veseth said.
Anthony Riboli of San Antonio Winery believes that pouring American wines into the Chinese market is not a mission impossible, as tariffs will not continue forever. But individual wineries will need a centralized program in California as a pillar to conveying the story behind a glass of wine to drinkers thousands of miles away.
"We can figure that out."