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Seven thousand feet up, a blue bird sky, and a stiff cold breeze. The perfect day on the hill. One hundred miles from downtown Los Angeles there is a small mountain town named Big Bear Lake that houses two of the largest ski resorts in the region. From the top of one the resorts, Snow Summit, you can look out and see the entire river valley below including brief glimpses of the Inland Empire.
The experience of getting to participate in winter sports in Southern California may soon disappear, and this isn't just a problem for those with enough time and money to go skiing. It will also have an effect on local communities that benefit most from winter sports and may server as precursors for mountain towns across the world.
Despite a banner year in which countless precipitation records were broken including the wettest February on record the future of skiing and snowboarding in Southern California is anything but certain. With rising temperatures, and long periods of continued drought, operating ski resorts have relied on the costly practice of snow making.
"Our research suggests that by the mid-twenty-first century, presuming a scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed, winter snowfall in Southern California mountains may be only about 70% of its historical values. By the end of the century, snowfall totals are only about half of historical totals," Neil Berg the Associate Director of Science for the Center for Climate Science at UCLA said.
By the next decade the average amount of snow on the ground near the end of the season in Big Bear will be 30 to 40 percent less, and that figure is expected to climb to 70 percent in the next 60 years according to a Department of Interior study.
The study also said that areas below 10,000 feet will experience the greatest change because the lower elevations will be more sensitive to increasing temperatures that can change snow precipitation into rain.
Each one of the six resorts located in Southern California falls below this 10,000-foot range and would be affected by these changes in the climate. Snow Summit has a summit elevation of 8,200 feet. By contrast Telluride in Colorado reaches 13,150 feet. These environmental changes would in essence end the ski industry in the region as it is seen today.
Skiing in Southern California, while a foreign concept to many on the outside looking in, is nothing new. It is not just beaches and surfing. The first recorded instance of skiing in the region took place in 1873. According to historian Ingrid Wicken it was 50 years later when skiing really took off in part due to ski jumping.
"In the 1930s the LA Junior Chamber of Commerce started putting on winter carnivals and first one was in Lake Arrowhead in 1927. In old copies of the LA Times they'd put the ski jumping and the winter carnival stuff on the front page," Wicken said.
Timeline information courtesy of Ingrid Wicken and the California Ski Library
As the industry continued to advance all over the world, so too did it in Southern California. Rope tows and lifts were added as resorts sought to make it easier for visitors to get up the hill.
"There were a few people doing downhill skiing but once the lifts started being built then they really made the transitions from, okay we can't really ski jump, but we can do this," Wicken said.
While the industry came to a halt during World War II, it roared back in the 1950s, and has continued to be a presence ever since.
Skiing and snow sports are a large part of local economies to mountain towns such as Big Bear Lake and Wrightwood where another resort, Mountain High is located.
Big Bear Lake's economy is focused on tourism. It is a town of 5,000 residents that is part of the larger river valley that contains an addition 15,000 residents. It's in the heart of the San Bernardino National Forest and walking around the village, the tourism center, it portrays the idyllic mountain town, complete with outdoor firepits and string lights.
Drive around more and you'll see a more traditional town with your normal amenities such as a Burger King and Vons. It's an average town, surrounded by gorgeous forests, filled with retirees and people simply looking to live a normal life.
"We are within a three-hour drive of 30 million people, and that is significant. We're really where Southern California want to come and play," Big Bear Lake Mayor Randall Putz said.
Some of the greatest winter sports athletes of the past 20 years grew up in Southern California and have spent time riding on these mountains. Shaun White one of the most celebrated athletes in winter sports, a three-time Olympic Gold Medalist grew up in San Diego and would drive up to Big Bear to snowboard as a child.
More than half of the total jobs in the city are tourism related according to the California Employment Development Department. However, these jobs are subject to the variabilities of the winter season.
"I've been up here 20 years and it just seems like the winters are more inconsistent and sporadic and often lighter. And so of course that has the impact on the snow and tourism," Putz said.
Nationally in 2018 the winter sports tourism industry contributed $12 billion to the economy according to a 2018 study by the nonprofit organization Protect Our Winters . During years with low snow totals however, there is a $1 billion reduction to that figure and 17,400 jobs less compared to an average winter season.
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It is family run, and only opens a few times a year if the conditions allow it. It has three chairlifts that are distinct for their bright red paint scheme. According to one of the owners, Beth Metcalf the resort has only opened for skiing six years out of the twelve years she's owned it with her brothers.
When talking about being a small family resort trying to reach a large audience Metcalf talked about the struggles of operating a resort that included issues of money and advertising.
"We're losing money because we're not open. So, it's really hard for us to do that, but people know about us. I mean we are there. We are a presence," Metcalf said.
Some of the larger resorts in the area such as the Big Bear Mountain Resort and the Mountain High Resort have invested heavily in snowmaking systems that allow them to be open even in years with low precipitation. However, for Mt. Waterman that isn't an option.
"Money and manpower make snowmaking," Metcalf said.
This leaves Waterman and other smaller resorts like Mt. Baldy stuck in a cycle. They need snowmaking to open, but they can't afford snowmaking unless they are open.
The Mountain High Resort in Wrightwood, CA, is located on the east end of Highway 2, 40 miles from downtown Los Angeles and relies on ground wells for their snowmaking while the Big Bear Mountain Resorts draw water from Big Bear Lake.
Making man-made snow creates stability for the mountains but does not come without its own challenges. Beyond the cost of these systems, there must be enough water to make the snow.
"The water that's in the ground ends up in our wells is the water that fell the year before. So, if you have a dry year then you have less water to make snow with then you have less water to make snow with next year," John McColly the Chief Marketing Officer at the Mountain High Resort said.
Mountain High relies on precipitation from the year before to fill up their wells and McColly said that before this year's uptick in precipitation it was it difficult to deal with the drought.
"This drought is unlike anything we've seen before. There was a seven-year drought depending on who you want to talk to. One to two-year droughts was the cycle before so that was unheard of and tough to weather," McColly said.
The trend of varying winter conditions will continue according to Neil Berg at UCLA.
"Our research suggests that Southern California may experience increased frequency of both extremely wet winters (similar to what we just experienced) and extremely dry winters (as we had during the last drought)," Berg said.
He said that while variability will increase, the amount of precipitation will not decrease on average. However, because of increasing temperatures there will actually be a decrease in the amount of snow. As the snow that would have fallen would turn to rain before hitting the ground.
"The variability, or volatility, of our winter precipitation is projected to increase, although the average amount of precipitation that the region will see in the future is not projected to change significantly," Berg said.
Not only does the lack of snow hurt local enthusiast who want to get to the hill, but it also has an adverse effect on the local economy. While most people may only come up for the day to visit Wrightwood to see the snow, the employees that work at the resorts suffered.
"We have anywhere from 800 to 1,000 employees every year. That's something that ebbs, and flows based on the duration of the season and the overall quality of the season, McColly said." "Open late, close early that means less employment. Or have less facilities open, that means less money going back into the local community."
Photos by Robert Walker/Annenberg Media
There is no little to no action that can be taken know to reverse the trend, but that hasn't stopped towns like Big Bear Lake from looking at ways to cope with the coming changes.
There are several city agencies in Big Bear Lake that are looking toward the future to keep the water levels of the lake sustainable. They have started an initiative called the Replenish Big Bear Project. In January of 2018 the lake reached its lowest level in 40 years at 18 feet below normal.
The project is aimed to keep Big Bear Lake ahead of the curve when it comes to climate change. While not directly impacting the winter sports community it says a lot about the town's outlook on climate change.
David Lawrence, the General Manager of Big Bear Area Regional Wastewater Agency that is heading the Replenish Big Bear Project talked about the impact that tourism has the local economy.
"I will tell you economically though 1 million skiers that come up every year spend about the same amount of money as the 6 million people that come up and visit the lake," Lawrence said.
The City of Big Bear Lake's Visitor Bureau has recently shifted their focus to encourage more visitors in off peak seasons to combat the effects of low winters according to mayor Putz.
"It is still slower in the spring and fall and a bit slower in the summer, but it used to be a drastic difference. I used to own a lodge ten years ago up here and it would be like crickets in the springs, and you couldn't give rooms away and that's less the case now, and I think that it's because of the marketing efforts to do the non-peak seasons," Putz said.
Like the city of Big Bear Lake many resorts in Southern California have shifted their focus onto other year-round activities that can generate revenue when there are years of less snowfall. Mt Waterman now has scenic chair rides and disk golf. Snow Summit has reintroduced mountain biking after taking several years off and is looking to add new year-round activities.
Snow Summit summer trail map showing bike trails, ziplining, and other activities.
Courtesy of Snow Summit
"While winter visitation will always be our primary revenue driver, expanding summer products/operations will be a key objective for Big Bear Mountain Resort moving forward," an official statement said.
Mountain biking has grown as a huge industry and is helping to supplement income for most mountain resorts. It is a staple at other larger resorts in Northern California such as Mammoth Mountain, NorthStar, and Squaw Valley.
These activities are helping to diversify the way in which the resorts make money and will continue to be a large factor in the development of these resorts.
Mountain biking, like skiing is not cheap to implement. One of the big issues with opening the resorts for mountain biking is the liability, and the expensive insurance policies that come with it. As with snowmaking, mountain biking will help to bolster larger resorts, but the smaller ones will be left out.
This leaves the smaller resorts to focus on smaller and cheaper activities, like disk golf, scenic chairlift rides, and mountain top dinners. These changes are coming, and in most places are already seen.
Devoted skiiers will continue to visit Southern California resorts as long as they can. Their love of the mountains will sustain them no matter the conditions, until the snow disappears.
When asked if she was nervous about the effect of climate change Mt. Waterman owner Beth Metcalf's response was accepting.
"No, because that's going to happen where it happens or not. We have a whole summer program," Metcalf said.
McColly from Mountain High was more to the point.
"As the snow level rises slowly over time the lower resorts will go out of business. It will just be the upper resorts that have 11,000 to 14,000-foot snow levels that could survive. You know that's just a fact," McColly said.
The potential disappearance of skiing and snow sports in Southern California where all the local resorts are below 10,000 feet will be one of the first truly visible signs of climate change in the region and will act as a forerunner for other mountain towns throughout the country.
"The amount of snowfall likely to be lost at end of century (roughly half of baseline snowfall), and the corresponding further reduction of the snowpack, can be substantially mitigated by aggressively reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades," the UCLA study stated.
While nothing can be done to reduce the effects seen in the coming decades. Somethings can be changed to help alter the trend by the end of the century, and it seems as if the resorts are committed to do whatever they can.
"Big Bear Mountain Resort is committed to minimizing the resort's environment impact and is continually looking for ways to improve," Justin Kanton the Marketing Manager at the Big Bear Mountain resort said.
Both the Big Bear Mountain Resort and Mountain High have retrofitted their snow gun to be more energy efficient and are looking into other way to reduce their own waste.
"We need to walk the walk and talk the talk," McColly said.
The viability of winter sports in Southern California appears to be uncertain, but with significant changes they may be able to be enjoyed for an uncertain extended period of time, because once the snow is gone there will be nothing to do other than head north.
The local resorts are keeping an eye toward the future and will continue to do anything they can to stick around, taking the change season by season. The communities that heavily rely on the resorts for tourism can only try and adapt along with the them as the amount of snow continues to diminish.
"The fact of the matter is that the global temperature is rising and it's going to continue to rise. So that ski resorts or snow is just going to continue to kind of recede," McColly said.
Photo by Robert Walker/Annenberg Media